The opposition parties engaged in preparations for the next Lok Sabha elections are divided on the basic question as to who will be their prime ministerial candidate. To say that no opposition leader is claiming himself as a contender. But everyone knows that this is the biggest challenge before the opposition unity. There is no problem in deciding things such as alliances, seat sharing, common minimum program among the parties as all the opposition parties have been together at some point or the other. Everyone knows each other’s ideology and everyone is aware of the ways of running the government. Everyone knows each other’s ability to contest and contest elections and there is no need for any regional party to go to another state and fight. So there is no problem of seat sharing. The real problem is who will be the face to challenge Narendra Modi? Will there be a face or not?
That is why the opposition parties are avoiding this question. In Patna, K Chandrashekhar Rao avoided answering the question saying that it would be decided later, while in Delhi Nitish Kumar avoided the question saying that he is not a prime ministerial candidate. Trinamool Congress leaders have declared many times in the past that Delhi is not far away for Mamata Banerjee, but now her party is also sitting silently. Sharad Pawar has already separated himself on the basis of age and health.
One Arvind Kejriwal is definitely playing his duffle and his party is claiming that the election of 2024 will be Modi vs Kejriwal but their reality is known to all. It is possible that like the current Lok Sabha, he may not have a single MP in the next Lok Sabha also. Even if his party performs well, the chances of him reaching the double of Lok Sabha MPs are almost zero. So there is no point in beating them up.
Now the question is, why are the opposition parties in a dilemma regarding this question and what are the options before them? There is also the question that what would be better for the opposition- presenting a candidate for the post of PM or contesting the election without presenting a claimant? The answer is not easy. It has a well on one side and a ditch on the other side. First consider this option that what will happen if the opposition fights without presenting a claimant? In view of this possibility, the campaign of BJP’s IT cell has already started. Such posts have started coming in social media that if the government of opposition parties is formed, then seven leaders will work as Prime Minister for seven days a week. Nitish Kumar on one day, Mamta Banerjee on the second day, Sharad Pawar on the third day, Arvind Kejriwal on the fourth day etc. The second propaganda to fight without presenting a contender will be that the opposition has no leader to take on Modi. Then Modi alone will be the contender and there is no doubt that his face is still the face that attracts the most votes.
If the opposition chooses the second option i.e. decides to contest by presenting a claimant, then the biggest question is who will be that face? Does the opposition have a face like Modi with a pan-India identity and appeal? Every leader of opposition has limits. Nitish Kumar’s face cannot get the opposition votes anywhere other than Bihar and Jharkhand. If he is the face, he will not be able to get additional votes for Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal or Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar in Maharashtra. Similarly, if Mamata Banerjee is the face, she will not be able to get additional votes in any other state outside Bengal. Such limits belong to every regional leader. As far as Rahul Gandhi is concerned, the well-planned campaign of the last eight-ten years has made him an image of a serious and low-witted leader. Then there are more dangers in this strategy. Like first of all, as soon as the face is presented, it will be compared with Modi. Apart from political and administrative capacity, this comparison will be made from many other aspects. Keep in mind that in the last eight-ten years, such an image of Modi has been created in social media that no leader can compete with him. Such tales of his honesty, simplicity, patriotism, bravery etc. have been inculcated in the minds of the public that any other leader would seem too small against him.
The second danger is that the politics of identity of the regional parties will not work. Keep in mind that most of the regional parties do politics of identity. Mamta Banerjee is the representative leader of Bengali identity, while Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar are leaders doing politics of Maratha identity. Stalin represents the Dravidian identity, K Chandrasekhar Rao represents Telugu Pride and the Deve Gowda family is involved in the politics of Kannada identity. Earlier there was no such thing as Bihari Asmita, but now it is also an issue in the age of social media.
Nitish Kumar himself has given air to Bihari sub-nationality from above. In such a situation, if the leader of one state is a common contender for the opposition, the politics of identity will be shattered in other states. In the name of Nitish Kumar, Mamata Banerjee cannot play the bet of Bengali identity. If his goal is to win all or maximum seats in the Lok Sabha, then it will be possible only if he plays the stake of becoming the first Bengali Prime Minister. Similarly, Nitish Kumar will benefit when the possibility of becoming the first Bihari Prime Minister is publicized.
In this sense, the option of contesting without presenting a claimant is less damaging. If the opposition does not present any claimant, then the regional satrap in every state will be an undeclared claimant for the post of PM. It can make an issue of regional, ethnic and linguistic identity. Prime Minister Modi’s perception of being a Hindu Hriday Samrat will be hurt only when regional parties make his Gujarati identity an issue and play against it. However it will not be that simple. Narendra Modi had already foreseen this possibility and contested from Varanasi seat in Uttar Pradesh. Even after becoming the Prime Minister, he uses the political card of Gujarati identity but at the same time he uses the backward caste and Hindu identity among the people of the Hindi belt. So, the opposition parties have to keep this in mind while doing politics of identity.
Only then it seems better of the two options that the opposition parties should not present any face. All the parties should do the politics of stopping the BJP in their respective states. Like it happened in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. In that election, the SP had got 36 seats, the highest in its history. The RJD had got the highest 25 seats in its history and the Left parties also had the best performance in their history and won 60 seats. Similarly, this time also if the opposition parties coordinate and the other parties support the party in the state where it has power, then it will be the best option. To say it in one line, it can be said that a united opposition should make decentralized political efforts. It should also not appear that everyone is trying to stop Modi together and it should not be that everyone is scattered.