What is the message and lesson of the results of the by-elections held in seven assembly seats in six states? Broadly speaking, the message is that the BJP is becoming a pan-India party on its own. The second message is that the Congress is on the verge of extinction in many new states. And the third message is that it is still difficult for the BJP to compete with regional satraps. Apart from these three messages, there is a lesson that if the opposition parties do not unite and the BJP keeps on using the vote-cutting parties, then every election ahead will become more difficult for the opposition. Had the opposition remained united in Odisha and Bihar, the results could have been different. If Congress and TRS had fought together in Telangana too, the margin of victory for the TRS candidate would have been huge.
Talking about the message of the results of the by-elections, it has been decided that the BJP is now moving towards becoming an all India party on its own. She has built such a strong social base that she can challenge any strong opponent. This is indicated by the results of two assembly seats in Bihar and one seat each in Odisha and Telangana. Out of two seats in Bihar, one was won by RJD and one by BJP. Gopalganj seat had fallen vacant after the death of his MLA and he had fielded the late MLA’s wife. She won by about 18 hundred votes, whereas in the last election her husband won by more than 35 thousand votes. However, there was an alliance of BJP and JDU then and both had a strong social base.
Even after JDU split and merged with RJD, getting 41 per cent votes of BJP candidate against RJD candidate is a big deal. The margin of victory may have been small, but this result is going to send a big message in the caste-divided Bihar. It is also a fact that the RJD was defeated due to the BSP and MIM having around 12.5% votes, but their fight was also not accidental. Both these parties have proved to be favorable for the BJP in many places and they cannot be denied helping the BJP in this way even further. So, the opposition will have to prepare itself accordingly. In Bihar’s second seat Mokama, last time Anant Singh won by 35,000 votes, when RJD fought alone. This time when RJD and JDU have fought together, his wife has won by about 16 thousand votes. Even there, getting more than 42 per cent votes of a BJP candidate on his own is not a trivial matter. These two elections need to be seen in the light that today all the parties of Bihar- RJD, JDU, Congress, CPI, CPM, CPIML, HUM, VIP etc. are together and on the other hand there is only BJP, which is supported by the divided LJP. Is. Despite this, if the BJP is getting more than 40 percent votes on its own in the assembly elections, then it is a sign of its strengthening social and political base in the politics of Bihar.
The BJP’s best performance outside Bihar was in Telangana, where its candidate got a little over 38 per cent of the vote. The BJP candidate lost by around 10 thousand votes, but the BJP being in the main contest in the stronghold of Telangana Rashtra Samithi, Congress and MIM and securing close to 87 thousand votes indicates that Telangana is becoming the second state after Karnataka. Where BJP can emerge as a big party. Keep in mind that in November last year, the BJP had won the Huzurabad seat by defeating TRS. Only then this time TRS had put in full force. Similarly, the Dhamnagar seat of Odisha was saved by the BJP. Despite the charisma of Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik and all the hard work of Biju Janata Dal, the victory of Suryabanshi Suraj of BJP is not a minor thing. Earlier his father had won from this seat. The BJP has increased the margin of victory in the by-election in its stronghold Gola Gokarnath seat of Uttar Pradesh from the last election. So, the performance of the BJP in Bihar, Telangana, Odisha and Uttar Pradesh shows that the party has been able to build a strong social and political base along with campaigning and resource utilization.
The second message of these by-elections is that in many states the Congress party is almost wiped out. The Congress did not contest four seats in Bihar, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh. It contested only three seats and its candidate lost on all three. Congress was looking in the contest on Adampur seat of Haryana, yet its candidate lost by close to 16 thousand votes. In Telangana, the Congress candidate came third and in Odisha, the Congress candidate came fourth with just two per cent votes. Congress was the main opposition party in Telangana in the last election. The party used to be the main opposition party in Odisha until the last elections and is the main opposition party in Haryana. Congress could not do any wonders in these three states. At the time when the voting took place in Telangana, Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra was also going on. Despite this, the Congress came third. It is clear from this that the vote base of the Congress is shrinking, the organization is weakening and leaders are disappearing. Congress has to pay attention to this. If she wants the Bharat Jodo Yatra to be politically beneficial, then the focus has to be on organization and leadership.
The third message of this by-election is that it is still difficult for the BJP to compete with the regional satraps. As easily as the BJP can defeat the Congress, it is not able to defeat the regional parties with that ease. The case of Uttar Pradesh is different, where communal polarization is taking place in the ratio of 80 to 20. But apart from that, the contest for the BJP in the by-elections in other states was not easy. In Bihar she won by less than two thousand votes and lost one seat despite the help of BSP and MIM. Rashtriya Janata Dal’s performance in both the seats was very good. TRS defeated BJP by nearly 10,000 votes in Telangana. Fearing defeat in Maharashtra, the BJP had already left the election fray and extended the help of NOTA. In Odisha, the BJP managed to save the seat it had won in a close contest with the Biju Janata Dal. The BJP also benefited from the sympathy factor in Gopalganj in Bihar and Dhamnagar in Odisha. He had fielded the wife of the late MLA in Gopalganj and the son of the late MLA in Dhamnagar.
One lesson of these by-elections for the opposition parties is that they have to be united at all costs. The way in which all the anti-Congress parties used to unite with the idea of non-Congressism at one point of time. Similarly, if the opposition wants to challenge the BJP, it has to be united. BJP gets the benefit of their being scattered or contesting elections separately, it was shown in this by-election. There is no doubt that Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party, Asaduddin Owaisi’s MIM and Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party are not going to join the opposition for different reasons. Their candidates will be there in every election and knowingly or unknowingly they will be benefitting the BJP. But other than these opposition parties will have to unite only then they will be able to challenge the BJP in the next election.
