More than 40 percent Brahmins, farmers and Muslim voters in UP

There is a saying in Indian politics that the way to the throne of Delhi goes through the politics of UP. That is, if you want to maintain dominance in the upper house along with the lower house of Parliament, then it is the need and desire of every political party to capture maximum of 403 seats in the UP Legislative Assembly. This is the reason that every party’s strategy has been prepared to win the 2022 assembly elections. Whether it is the ruling BJP or the opposition parties SP-BSP and Congress. The interesting thing is that this time the focus of everyone’s strategy is Brahmin, farmer and Muslim vote bank. Let us understand one by one how this trio of Brahmins, farmers and Muslims can make or break the game of which party in 2022.

Vote maths in UP: Before we discuss the equations of political parties, let’s take a look at the maths of votes in UP. According to the Election Commission data, there are a total of 14,43,16,893 voters in Uttar Pradesh. According to the report of the news agency Reuters, out of the total voters of UP, 20% of the total voters are from the Most Backward Classes, followed by the Muslim vote bank which is 19.3% of the total vote. Jatav vote is 13%, OBC vote is 12% and Brahmin vote is 11%. After this comes the turn of Yadav vote bank which is 9%, after removing Jatav, the vote percentage of other scheduled castes is 8 percent. Whereas other upper caste votes except Brahmins are 7.7%.

BJP’s election ledger: Now let’s talk about which political party is counting votes. First let’s look at the electoral maths of the ruling BJP. In the 2017 assembly elections, the BJP had performed brilliantly, securing 39.67% vote share and 312 assembly seats. Political pundits believe that by giving the slogan of social harmony, BJP left Jatav in BSP’s Dalit vote bank and made a large part of ultra Dalit vote in its side, which is about 8%, similarly thanks to Keshav Prasad Maurya and Anupriya Patel. Except Yadav, BJP has been able to win over a large part of the Most Backward and Other Backward Classes, which together make up 32%. Apart from this, Brahmins also gave their blessings to BJP and the result is in front of everyone. That is why BJP is trying to persuade the Brahmins because if this class gets angry then a huge vote share will go out of its hands and maybe even the power of UP. Similarly, farmers of almost every section are said to be angry with BJP on the issue of three agriculture bills. Rakesh Tikait has openly expressed this in the Mahapanchayat.

BSP’s electoral math: The BSP, which got 19 seats and 22.23% vote share in the 2017 assembly elections, is assuming that it will hold 13% traditional Jatav votes. In such a situation, if 19.3% Muslim votes and 11% Brahmin votes come in the account of BSP, then Mayawati’s worries will end to a great extent. If it is a matter of loss due to excessive Dalit votes going to BJP, then to compensate for the same, Behenji’s eyes are on the farmers’ movement. In her meetings, Mayawati sometimes talks about giving security to Brahmins and sometimes expresses sympathy for the farmers. But here Mayawati is facing a tough competition from Akhilesh Yadav, who is doing a similar exercise for the Samajwadi Party.

SP and vote count–book: At some point in time, Mulayam Singh Yadav’s MY, that is, the Muslim-Yadav equation, had created a storm in the politics of the state, but at that time the matter was different because Mulayam was considered the undisputed leader of the entire backward class. But what did BJP do while doing social engineering to separate the most backward and the other backward from the backward, the whole equation changed. In such a situation, before the 2022 assembly elections, Akhilesh Yadav is trying to prepare a solid base by combining 19.3% Muslim and 11% Brahmin votes with 9% Yadav vote bank. This is the reason that sometimes on the pretext of UP Police, they accuse Brahmins and Muslims of being atrocious and sometimes they are seen openly expressing their love for Lord Parashuram. Akhilesh’s eyes are now also fixed on Tikait, which can prove to be a game changer by bringing farmers belonging to every section into the account of SP.

what will happen to congress: Once upon a time, the upper caste and Muslim votes were considered the basis of the Congress. But after 1989, the upper castes and after 1992 the Muslims of UP became angry with the Congress. As a result, the Congress party, which once held power in UP for decades, was reduced to just 7 seats and 6.25% vote share in 2017. Now the pair of Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi is trying to regain the lost ground on the pretext of supporting the farmers’ movement. Now how much success he gets, that is a big question.